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Playing roulette in a casino is fantastic fun for me – I just love everything about it – the atmosphere, lights, free drinks and I even win money quite often. I love to gamble but I am very conservative in my gambling – I know that casinos don’t get rich if the odds weren’t in their favour. So when I hear someone talking about the next roulette secret I am always suspicious.

The fact is when I hear or read on the internet about the latest roulette gambling method that can’t lose – I usually find it’s based on either the Martingale system or the Monte Carlo fallacy.

Monte Carlo Fallacy

The Monte Carlo Fallacy or as it’s also known – the gamblers fallacy is simply incredible in that it is survived so many years and still believed by many people. I think the problem is that on the surface it’s so plausible and this is why it ends up being the basis of so many roulette secrets. The idea behind it is that any deviation from the mean will be counterbalanced by an opposite deviation. This means in English that if I spun a roulette wheel 10 times and it came up red each time – you would be expecting black to come up next to equal out the averages. The simple fact is that after 10 red spins (if we ignore the 0s) the likelihood of red coming up is still 50/50. Sure the probability of getting 11 reds in a row is very high but by the time you’ve rolled 10 – the next one is still 50/50. Passed events do not affect future events in a random game like roulette.

The gamblers fallacy is often why people sit for hours marking little cards in casinos studying passed events like how many odds, evens and reds etc have come up. So next time you see 6 black spins on roulette and contemplate putting your title deeds on red for the next spin – remember you are still taking a 50/50 guess.

Martingale System

This system or a variant is also often offered as a hidden roulette system to beat the odds. In fact it even appeared on an episode of CSI Vegas which is quite ironic considering the improbability of the deaths on that show. It’s basic concept is quite simple – you apply the system to some 50/50 bet – maybe betting red again on the roulette wheel (the odds are not exactly 50/50 obviously but that is the risk you always take). You start off with a low bet on say red – and then of you lose you keep doubling your bet. The idea is that you will always make a profit – so if you bet $1,$2,$4,$8,$16 and won on the 6th spin you would win $32 -$31 total stake – so a dollar profit. There are many issues with this strategy besides the existence of a house edge (zero in this case) – but the main problem is that it is surprising how many times the same event is repeated and you required stake can multiple alarmingly – a little bad luck and soon you could be placing a bet in the thousands to win back your dollar.

If you get to the point where you can’t afford the stake or are unwilling – the whole strategy falls apart. What you are doing is risking a huge loss for the gain of lots of little wins – which is clearly no roulette secret! The system was originally developed in France in the 18th Century and needless to say none of it’s founders became wealthy through using it. Amazingly it still appears everywhere as the latest roulette secret even today.

Of course there is a fundamental difference with random chance and probability in real life games with that of online experiences – you can’t beat the odds if a result is purely random. Computers however are deterministic machines and producing random numbers has also been difficult as they have to be programmed to do produce them.

I’ve been currently trying a software program that claims to have spotted weaknesses in the algorithms and can predict the most likely winning spins. I’m not sure if it works yet – it focusses on outside bets – ir not specific number bets and it is simple to use. I’ve won quite a few times with it but when using outside bets you do usually have better chance of turning a profit.

Roulette Killer

All the best

John